Outer headlines: There is little hope of passing the stimulus bill before the US election
The headlines that the global financial media focused on last night and this morning Mainly:
1. Pelosi and Mnuchin continue to talk with each other before the general election. There is little hope of passing the stimulus bill before the election.
2. Economic Nobel Prize winners: investors’ concerns about major market collapse Has reached the highest level in many years
3. Venture capitalists: The Democratic “blue wave” will pose a threat to large technology stocks
4. Former New York Federal Reserve Chairman: Between the Federal Reserve and Congress No conflict of interest
5. Ant Group’s IPO will raise 34.5 billion U.S. dollars to surpass Saudi Aramco, the highest in history.
6. U.S. sanctions Iranian oil ministers and tensions between the two countries have intensified
Pelosi and Mnuchin continue to talk before the election There is little hope of passing the stimulus bill.
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin once again tried to bridge the stimulus plan differences, but investors seem to have no hope of passing the bill before the election.
There are currently eight days before Election Day. The Senate is scheduled to adjourn later on Monday and members of Congress will leave Washington. If an agreement is still not reached, it basically means that it is impossible to complete the drafting, voting and signing of the bill before the November 3 general election.
White House economic adviser Kudlow told reporters on Monday that the differences between the two sides have narrowed, but as the differences narrowed, the situation of the other side has become more and more.
Pelosi continues to promote the implementation of a nationwide epidemic prevention plan, which includes measures such as new crown testing, tracking, treatment, mask orders, and social distancing. She accused the Trump administration of malfeasance in handling the epidemic.
Pelosi said in a letter to his colleagues, “We are waiting for the Trump administration to make an important response to our’several concerns’, including an epidemic prevention action. Now Mnuchin announced Ten days have passed since he accepted our testing program, and the Trump administration still refuses to do so.”
Economic Nobel Prize Winner: Investor Concerns about major market crashes have reached their highest levels in years
Nobel Prize winner in economics and Yale University professor Robert Schiller urged investors to take a cautious approach to investing in the stock market.
Schiller said: “No one can predict the future, but given the general lack of investor confidence in the new crown epidemic and political polarization, a negative, self-fulfilling prediction is likely to Prevalence. This highlights the importance of diversifying investment in asset classes and reducing risk exposure in U.S. stocks.”
Schiller said: “The COVID-19 crisis and the US November election made investors Worries of major market crashes have reached their highest levels in years. At the same time, stock trading is at a very high level. This unstable combination does not mean that a crash will occur, but it indicates that the risk of an accident is relatively high. This is Be cautious.”
Specifically, Schiller’s “Crash Confidence Index” is ringing the alarm. Schiller said that when investors answered the question “What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic collapse of U.S. stocks in the next six months?”, the bearish answer shows that investor confidence is close to the lowest level in history. .
Schiller also pointed out that, except for the Great Depression and the bursting of the Internet bubble in the 1920s, the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio is currently at the highest level in history.
Venture Capitalist: Democratic Party “Blue “Tide” will pose a threat to large technology stocks
Political strategist and venture capitalist Bradley Tusk said that investors ignored the risk of the Democratic Party’s “blue tide” victory in the US general election in November.
Tusk explained in a memo sent to its customers on Monday how the outcome of next week’s election will affect the technology industry.
Tusk said that if the White House, especially the Democratic Party, controls the Senate and the House of Representatives, large technology companies will face real risks. According to FiveThirtyEight, a polling analysis agency, the Democratic Party is expected to win the election. This result can eliminate most of the deadlock currently facing Washington and pave the way for new legislation.
Tusk said that after four years of chaos in the Trump administration, technology companies will welcome market stability and will benefit from the removal of immigration restrictions. But the downside they face is that the Justice Department, controlled by Democrats, may put greater pressure on large technology stocks in antitrust cases.
But Tusk wrote in the memo that the real focus should be on the Senate-the transition to Democrats represents a “dangerous scenario” for technology companies. Democratic Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have been the main callers for the spin-off of the tech giants.
Former New York Federal Reserve Chairman: The Federal Reserve and There is no conflict of interest between Congress
New York former Federal Reserve Chairman Bill Dudley said on Monday that the Fed’s independence is not threatened, and the COVID-19 crisis has forced the Fed and the White House to work together on economic recovery.
Dudley said: “I don’t see any conflict between the Fed, the government and Congress. They want the same thing: to stimulate economic recovery.”
last August , Dudley published a controversial column, suggesting that the Fed should take economic measures to prevent Trump from being re-elected.
Dudley defended the article, “I’m not saying that the Fed should act in a certain way, or influence the outcome of the election in a certain way. This is completely inappropriate. The established goal of formulating monetary policy, I believed it then, and now I think so.”
Dudley said that the situation of the new crown epidemic requires the Fed to work closely with the Treasury Department to support the economy. Recently, as the economic recovery seems to have lost some momentum, the Fed has been putting pressure on the White House and Congress to call for targeted financial support to businesses and households.
Dudley said that he was worried that further reliance on the Fed’s policies would not yield much benefit, because the Fed’s tools were “rapidly weakening”.
Ant Group will raise 34.5 billion in IPO The U.S. dollar surpassed Saudi Aramco to create the highest in history.
It is reported that after the stock issue price is determined, Ant Group will raise US$34.5 billion in this IPO, surpassing Saudi Aramco, becoming the world’s largest listing event so far .
Tonight, Ant Group has just announced the IPO price, A shares are 68.8 yuan / share, H shares are 80 Hong Kong dollars / share. Ant Group has previously stated that A shares and H shares will each issue no more than 1.67 billion new shares.
Based on this, Ant Group will raise 114.94 billion yuan in A shares and HK$133.65 billion in H shares. Overall, Ant Group will raise US$34.5 billion in this IPO. If the underwriter exercises the over-allotment right, the figure will be higher.
In any case, this IPO will become the largest IPO in history, breaking the previous record held by Saudi Aramco. In December last year, Saudi Aramco’s IPO raised US$29.4 billion, setting a record of “No. 1 in the world” at the time.
US sanctions Iranian oil ministers and the two countries Increasing tensions
Only a few days before the US presidential election, the United States announced sanctions against Iran’s oil minister and some related entities, highlighting the continued increase in tensions between the two countries.
The U.S. Treasury Department announced on Monday that it imposed sanctions on Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, saying that the country used its oil industry to fund the activities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its elite Quds Brigade.
“The Iranian regime uses the oil sector to fund the destabilizing activities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Al-Quds Brigade,” Finance Minister Mnuchin said in a statement on Monday. “The Iranian regime continues to target terrorist entities. And the support of the nuclear program is placed above the needs of the Iranian people.”
Zanganeh is a veteran of Iran’s oil industry and a skilled technical expert. He is also regarded as one of President Hassan Rouhani’s most moderate aides.
Monday’s sanctions have little effect on the current oil prices, because the existing sanctions have removed most Iranian crude oil from the global market.
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