The rise of the new crown epidemic has caused anxiety, German business confidence has declined in October
Original title: The rise of the new crown epidemic has caused anxiety, and German business confidence has declined in October
German companies are increasingly pessimistic about economic recovery After half a year of gradual improvement, this may mark the beginning of a major economic setback.
A survey released by on Monday showed that German corporate confidence fell for the first time in six months in October. Worries about the surge in the number of new crown cases have made companies more suspicious of the future Month outlook.
Ifu Economic Research Institute released a survey that showed that the business climate index fell to 92.7 in October and was revised down to 93.2 in September. It is expected to only fall to 93.0.
“Enterprises are more skeptical about development in the next few months,” Ifo director Foster said in a statement. “In view of the increase in the number of new crown infections, the worries of German companies are increasing.” “For Germany, we have not seen a second recession, but the risk is definitely rising.”
Germany’s economy shrank by 9.7% in the second quarter. During the peak of the epidemic, household spending, business investment and trade all fell sharply.
With the gradual lifting of the blockade measures and the introduction of a series of unprecedented relief stimulus plans by the authorities, Germany’s economy recovered strongly in the third quarter. The number of cases has surged, and the outside world is worried that economic activity may slow down again.
“After the strong performance of the German economy in the third quarter, the outlook for the fourth quarter is currently not very optimistic,” LBBW analyst Uwe Burkert said.
Germany’s main economic research institute predicted earlier this month that the economy will recover from the new crown virus pandemic more slowly than initially predicted.
These institutions predict that the economy will shrink by about 5.4% in 2020, a decline greater than the 4.2% predicted in April.
The recent German data is mixed. A survey published last Thursday showed that consumer confidence in Germany declined in November, as the second wave of the new crown epidemic hit the German public’s willingness to spend.
The survey released by last Friday showed that the activities of the German private sector increased for the fourth consecutive month in October. However, despite the acceleration of the manufacturing The contraction shows that the German economy is developing in two stages.
After the epidemic returned this month, the local government introduced a series of new restrictions and curfew measures. German Chancellor Merkel has promised to make every effort to prevent another blockade similar to the second quarter that hit the economy again, but companies have already felt the pressure.
Throughout Europe, governments of various countries are already implementing more stringent measures, getting closer and closer to the lockdown at the beginning of the outbreak. In the past few days, Spain has announced a nationwide curfew, and Italy has adopted the most severe measures since May.
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