Trump: When Biden was elected, the stock market crashed. How much did the US election affect A shares? Concept stock is coming

  Original title: Trump: The stock market crashed when Biden was elected! How does the US election affect A shares? Concept stocks are here

   The countdown to the US general election is less than 10 days away from election day.

  According to the New York Times, the 56th US presidential election will be held on November 3. Trump can be described as a full-fledged “drama”. Previously, Trump’s infection with “new crown pneumonia” has become the focus of the world, and the discussion about whether he can be re-elected has risen to a feverish level. In addition, supporters of the strongest enemy, Biden, are not in the minority. , This presidential election made the people who eat melons look full of excitement.

   Beijing time at 9 a.m. on October 23, the final debate of the 2020 US presidential election focused on the new crown virus, American family, American race, climate change, National security and leadership, Trump said that the peak of the new crown virus has passed.

   In fact, Worldometers real-time statistics show that the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States exceeds 8.66 million, and the cumulative number of deaths exceeds 228,000, which is almost more than The number of deaths in the United States in 2009. The misjudgment of the new crown epidemic may become a major obstacle to Trump’s re-election.

   In the debate yesterday, the two sides also discussed the topic of the stock market. Trump said, “They said that if I was elected, the stock market would prosper, and if he was elected, the stock market would collapse.” Biden responded by saying, “The idea of ​​a stock market boom is just what he thinks, and people from the group do not live on the stock market.”

   Then, if Trump and Biden are elected as the next president of the United States, what impact will they have on global stock markets and how will they affect A shares?

   Biden’s current approval rating is ahead of Trump

   there is nothing left to the election By the 10th, who can win this competition, let’s take a look at the voice of the market. According to the statistics of the US RCP poll, the Republican Party’s approval rate for Trump is less than 45%, while the Democratic Party Biden’s approval rate is ahead of Trump, close to 50%, but the current approval rate does not mean that the final result will not happen. Variety.

  Different from other countries, the United States implements an electoral group system. The votes are counted from state to state, and the party with the highest support rate can get this state Of all electoral votes. Trump and Biden belong to the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, respectively. Professional analysis shows that in previous presidential elections, the “swing state” played an important role in the US presidential election. In 2016, Trump won the “swing state”. “Only by winning the votes, did he defeat Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton and be elected President of the United States.

   From the perspective of the support camp, Trump’s supporters are less well-known, including Trump’s second son, Kanye, and Trump’s daughter Ivanka, etc. People; but Biden’s supporters include not only well-known artists Dwayne Johnson, Taylor Swift, NBA star James, but also former U.S. President Barack Obama, former wife Michelle Obama, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and former Republican Secretary of State Colin Powell et al.

   Trump’s poll approval rate lags behind Biden

   European poll results show: more Hope that Biden will be elected

   According to the results of European polls, most people hope that Biden will be elected. Biden’s support rate is as high as 80% in Denmark and over 70 in Germany. %. They believe that if Biden is elected, it may further strengthen the US ally system, attach importance to multilateral frameworks and global governance cooperation, correct some unacceptable practices of the Trump administration in Europe, and bring some opportunities to repair relations between the United States and Europe.

   On the contrary, if Trump is re-elected, he may consistently implement his radical measures, which is very detrimental to the enthusiasm of global investors. In addition, Trump’s US priority policy has done great harm to European countries.

   U.S. Presidential Election Year Dow rose more and fell less

   In fact, the U.S. presidential election can say It was a major event that attracted worldwide attention, affecting hundreds of millions of people. No matter who is elected, it may have certain positive and negative effects on China’s economy and capital market.

   To compare the performance of the Chinese and American indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more and fell less in the previous US presidential election years. As of 2020, the Dow It is a slight increase. Looking at the A-share market again, as of October 23, the Shanghai Index rose 7.47% during the year, outperforming the Dow in the same period. Under the global capital market linkage mechanism, any future performance of the U.S. stock index may affect A shares.

  According to data backtesting, the Dow and the Nasdaq index both rose in the three months after the election in the years in which the president’s re-election failed. In addition, the new president will take active measures to improve the current state of the country in the early stage of his tenure. The monetary and fiscal policies proposed are basically highly related to the economic conditions faced in the early stage of his tenure. At present, the new crown epidemic is one of the biggest risks for the United States at present, so no matter whether Trump can be re-elected, as long as the new crown epidemic can be well controlled, the Dow may still have a certain increase during the year.

   It is worth mentioning that if Trump cannot be re-elected, according to his style, before the transfer of power, the impact on the global economy and capital markets may be unpredictable . According to the public’s opinion, it may be more negative, so this may also be an important reason why Biden’s approval rating exceeds Trump.

   Biden’s election may be positive for A-shares versus US foreign trade stocks and technology stocks

   whether it is Trang Whether Pu or Biden is elected, whether there is a positive side to China, the answer is yes. Biden stated that if he is elected, he will resume the high-level dialogue mechanism with China and negotiate to reach conditions for the removal of tariffs. According to public information, the election of Biden may benefit US foreign trade stocks and some technology sectors.

   Securities Times Databao statistics show that the A-share market has a total of 133 US trading stocks, semiconductor industry and independent holdings, of which US trading stocks account for a relatively high proportion Individual stocks include Xichuang Yihui, Zhejiang Yongqiang, Hongte Precision, etc. Xichuang Yihui is the world’s leading provider of smart medical and smart business overall solutions. In 2016, the United States accounted for more than 40% of exports; Zhejiang Yongqiang’s latest overseas Revenue accounted for more than 90%, and in 2016 the U.S. revenue accounted for more than 40%.

   However, regardless of the outcome of the US general election, stocks with sustained high growth performance will still become the focus of the market. Statistics show that among the above-mentioned 133 stocks, institutions have unanimously predicted that the net profit will increase by more than 35% from 2020 to 2022, and a total of 17 stocks have underperformed the market since October, including Xichuang Yihui, Tuowei Information, North China Chuang, etc. .

   All 17 stocks have fallen since October, with Shengbang shares and China Software Inc. falling by more than 20%. In terms of performance, the lower limit of Shengbang’s net profit growth in the first three quarters reached 55%; from the unanimously predicted performance of institutions, this year’s performance is expected to double. Stocks include Changjiang Electronics Technology, Changchuan Technology, China Software, etc., and net profit growth will exceed 50 in the next two years % Stocks include China Software, Dongfangtong, etc.

  Trump’s re-election or good medicine + artificial intelligence stock

  If Trump is re-elected, Which sectors are good for A shares? Trump’s second-term policy agenda includes topics such as employment, eradication of the new crown, and medical insurance. In medicine, Trump plans to create 10 million new jobs and 1 million new small businesses within 10 months.

   The growth of employment opportunities mainly relies on encouraging the return of US companies and new trade protection policies, while the two major manufacturing industries of pharmaceuticals and robots have returned, and Trump Focus on mentioning. From the perspective of the pharmaceutical industry, the current United States is highly dependent on China for raw materials such as vitamins and antibiotics; and the robot sector suppressed by the other side will also force the domestic artificial intelligence industry to develop vigorously.

  According to this, Databao has sorted out a total of 67 A-shares related to vitamins, antibiotics and artificial intelligence related concept stocks, which have underperformed the market since October and the institutions have unanimously predicted 2020 There are 13 stocks with net profit growth of more than 25% by 2022, including Prologue Pharmaceuticals, Ziguang Guowei, and Sugon, etc. The stock prices of HKUST Xunfei and Brother Technology have increased slightly.

In terms of    performance, the lower limit of the net profit growth of Brother Technology in the first three quarters exceeded 350%, and the net profit of Prolog Pharmaceuticals in the first three quarters increased by 45.99% year-on-year. In terms of institutional forecasts, the performance of four stocks including Brother Technology, Beijing Junzheng, and Jincheng Pharmaceutical will double in 2020. Jincheng Pharmaceutical is the largest manufacturer of cephalosporin antibiotic side chain intermediates in China. Beijing Junzheng, Sichuang Yihui, and Jingjiawei are expected to increase their net profit by more than 40% in 2021, and the net profit of 4 stocks including Onglikang and Ziguang Guowei is expected to increase by more than 30% in 2022.

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