US stocks pre-market: AMD acquired Xilinx, Dow futures rose 0.4%
US stock index futures slightly before the market on Tuesday Climbed, trying to recover part of Monday’s lost ground. There are no major data announcements on this trading day. You can pay attention to the performance of US stocks. In addition, the US election and the development of the epidemic still affect market nerves.
As of press time, Dow futures rose 0.4%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.6%.
This week, U.S. stocks started trading this week with a sharp decline. The overall market tone is pessimistic. Both the epidemic and the high-hope U.S. stimulus plan disturbed the market. In addition, as the US election approached, panic began to heat up.
Lessons from history: The probability of US stocks rising within 8 days before the US election day is nearly 90%
Despite the sharp drop in US stocks on Monday, the US stock bulls still retain hope. There are currently 8 calendar days before the US general election on November 3, and historical records show that within 8 days before the previous US general elections, the probability of US stocks rising has reached nearly 90%.
CFRA Research Company’s chief investment strategist Stovall said that from the historical record, the 19th general election since 1944, within 8 calendar days before the election day, the US stock S&P 500 index The average increase was 2.5%. Out of the 19 records, there were 17 rises, in other words, the rise probability reached 89%.
Among these 19 records, the largest increase was during the 2008 financial crisis. In the eight days before Obama won the election, the S&P 500 index soared 18.5%. But then the U.S. stock market began to fall to a new low again. After four consecutive months of decline, it opened the longest bull market in U.S. stock history.
The only two declines in US stocks occurred on the eve of the 1988 Republican candidate George Bush and the 1968 Republican candidate Nixon won the election.
European and American epidemics continue to worsen
According to statistics from the real-time information update website Worldometers, as of about 18:00 on October 27th, Beijing time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide exceeds 4384 10,000 cases and the cumulative deaths exceeded 1.16 million.
The number of new crown infections in the United States, Russia, France and many other countries have all set records. A new wave of epidemics has swept across parts of the northern hemisphere, forcing some countries to implement new restrictions.
The number of new coronary pneumonia diagnoses in several states in the southern and southwestern United States has soared again, bringing more than 83,000 single-day diagnoses on Friday and Saturday, breaking the record of 77,300 cases set in July. The daily number of confirmed cases in the past 7 days averaged 68,767, which is also a new high.
In Europe, Italy and Spain imposed new restrictions. A series of countries, led by France, reported a record number of new cases, and the number of new cases in France on Sunday exceeded 50,000 for the first time. Italy has implemented new epidemic restrictions, ordered restaurants and bars to close from 6 p.m., closed cinemas and gyms, and imposed curfews in many areas.
The number of new cases of new crown infection in Russia on Monday rose to a record 17,347. The government warned that the epidemic had begun to cause greater losses outside Moscow. The country has 1.5 million infections, second only to the United States, India and Brazil in the world.
To make matters worse, Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Committee of the White House, said that negotiations on the new crown rescue plan have been slowed down, although House Speaker Pelosi still agreed on the November 3rd election day. The agreement is hopeful. Many Senate Republicans are opposed to the $2 trillion scale discussed by Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin.
State Street Global Advisors’ chief investment strategist, Michael Arone, said, “Fears about the rebound of the new crown epidemic and the failure of Republicans and Democrats to reach an agreement on fiscal policy have made investors feel uneasy.
Amo Sahota, executive director of foreign exchange consulting firm Klarity FX, said, “As the S&P 500 index fell, the market became tense. The danger is clearly that if the number of cases continues to rise as before, North America will have to start implementing further restrictions, even curfews, and even lockdowns, even though the government has repeatedly told us that they do not want to do so. “
Some analysts pointed out that the resurgence of the epidemic in Europe and the United States has once again overshadowed the economic recovery, and short-term safe-haven buying may continue to support the U.S. dollar. The current market trading sentiment in the US election has not been clearly reflected, but as the election is approaching , The market’s wait-and-see sentiment is expected to rise, waiting for the release of key risks.
U.S. election countdown: Has the market underestimated the probability of Trump’s victory?
Right now, only the results of the U.S. presidential election are left. In one week, before the election day on November 3, more than 60 million Americans had voted, breaking the record for voting speed, and possibly the highest turnout rate in more than 100 years.
National polls show that Biden is steadily ahead of Trump, but in battlefield states, the competition between the two is much more intense, and the outcome depends mainly on who can win the battlefield state.
In fact, the advantage of Biden’s support rate in polls has converged. Real Clear Politics average poll data shows that the support rate of Biden and Trump’s polls has changed from 51.2% to 42.3% on October 14 last week to 10 From 50.7% to 42.8% on 22nd, Biden’s lead narrowed.
Biden’s lead in swing states also narrowed compared to last week. Even though Biden’s lead in Georgia polls has returned , But also lost Ohio’s leading position.
Some investors on Wall Street bet excessively on Biden’s victory, which will cause volatility in financial markets such as the bond and stock markets.
” To a certain extent, the market underestimated the possibility of a rebound in the Trump election,” said Karl Schamotta, chief global strategy analyst at Cambridge Global Payments.
Market observers are now worried that if Trump wins the election upset , Or the election result is uncertain, it is possible that a large number of positions will be forced to liquidate similar to the 2016 election. In the 2016 election, investors placed an overwhelming prediction of Hillary’s victory.
National Australia Bank Foreign Exchange Analyst Rodrigo Catril pointed out that many investors are unwilling to establish new positions before the US election.
Catril said: “I think many people may remember the bad experience of the 2016 Trump-Clinton election. If you held a position at that time, you would probably lose heavily. I think the strategy this time is to go lightly and act on the camera on the day of the election, rather than building heavy positions before the election. “
, said King Lip, chief strategist at Baker Avenue Asset Management in San Francisco, that signs of a close election often lead to greater volatility before election day. “The polling gap seems to be narrowing. . . This will only bring more uncertainty. “
AMD fell more than 5% before the market, Xilinx rose more than 12% before the market. AMD agreed to acquire Xilin through an all-stock agreement for $35 billion Thinking.
AIG rose 5.6% before the market, after previously expressing that it would consider splitting its life and retirement businesses.
Eli Lilly fell more than 5% before the market. Revenue in the third quarter was 57.4. Billion U.S. dollars, the market expected 5.863 billion U.S. dollars, 5.476 billion U.S. dollars in the same period last year.
Pfizer fell 1.42% before the market. Diluted earnings per share in the third quarter was 0.39 U.S. dollars, the market expected 0.59 U.S. dollars, and 1.36 dollars in the same period last year.
Raytheon Technology rose 0.31% pre-market. Diluted earnings per share in the third quarter was US$0.1, the market expected US$0.07.
Caterpillar fell 0.11% pre-market. The third quarter. Adjusted earnings per share were US$1.34, and the market expected US$1.13.
3M rose 0.04% pre-market. Adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter were US$2.43, and the market expected US$2.26.
BP rose 1.77% before the market, and its adjusted net profit in the third quarter was US$86 million, better than market expectations.
HSBC Holdings rose 4% before the market, and its after-tax profit in the third quarter was US$1.359 billion, month-on-month. A substantial increase of 607.8%.
JP Morgan Chase raised its Twitter target price from 39 U.S. dollars to 52 U.S. dollars.
The Royal Bank of Canada raised Starbucks’ target price from 89 U.S. dollars to 97 U.S. dollars.
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